Factories already buy over $25 billion worth of industrial robots every year. Humanoid robots are neither going to displace specialized industrial robots, nor are they going to be particularly useful since industrial robots can lift entire car chassis, or perform precision work that would be impossible for a robot that can walk around. Surgical robots are neither humanoid, nor are they equipped with human like hands, for very good reasons. I don't know where people get the idea that humanoid robots are the dawn of the robot era. It's a blind alley, a dead end, impractical, un-competitive with specialized robots, and dangerous.
We've shaped the world to be useful to humans with tools used by and for humans. It's going to be very advantageous to have generally capable humanoid robotic platforms that can take advantage of all of the shortcuts and hacks and efficiencies we tailored to ourselves.
If we get there, and I think we are there now, then the worst case scenario is having to tediously implement the hundreds of thousands of little tasks and skills needed to be effective for a particular job.
The best case scenario is we run training videos for AI that gets cloned to fleets, and then you can deploy the equivalent of robotic Amish carpenters to build housing, or robotic warehouse operators, and you're paying a tenth of the cost with a hundredth of the hassle for the same work output as a human, and the efficiency and effectiveness only go up year over year, while human labor has more or less peaked.
I'd rather have a fleet of general purpose robots which I can put to any use within the human repertoire than technically more efficient and cheaper specialty robots that only perform singular tasks in an assembly line.
Humanoid robots have advantages industrial robots don’t: they fit where humans fit and can use tools humans use. They’ll fold your proverbial laundry with nothing more than their robot hands, then they’ll unpack your dishwasher and mow your lawn.
Even if it's unglamarous, there's loads of economic value in tele-operated humanoid bots. They can improve productivity via one pilot driving N robots and issuing high-level commands. They can also allow factories to import labor from 3rd world countries without bothering with the visa stuff. Providing complete manufacturing synergy using world-class, follow-the-sun shifts, minimizing disruptions and ensuring you meet your re-onshored manufacturing goals.
I don't see these being used outside of high earning households in gated communities. The same humans being exploited for their labor, whose earnings are hoovered up by the ultra-wealthy, barely have the discretionary income for food and clothes.
It's that old tinfoil hat theory that the Jetsons and the Flintstones took place in the same point in history, the Jetsons were in the sky with their mind-bending technology, all their needs met, meanwhile the Flintstones are down on the planet, working menial jobs wearing and eating literal scraps.
The common man will never see a household robot, that is unless they cobble together enough components that have been discarded by the haves to be used by the have-nots.
To the point of your statement, humanoid robots will certainly fill lots of niches, it'll be fascinating to see what becomes prevalent first: menial labor, agentic-type household assistance, tutoring the kids, walking grandma across the busy intersection, sex tasks, etc.
> It's that old tinfoil hat theory that the Jetsons and the Flintstones took place in the same point in history, the Jetsons were in the sky with their mind-bending technology, all their needs met, meanwhile the Flintstones are down on the planet, working menial jobs wearing and eating literal scraps.
That’s the current situation. Not tinfoil hat needed.
I recently watched a short clip (1) of the comedians who followed Joe Rogan to Austin lamenting how bad of an idea it was.
Notably Shane Gillis described to Rogan:
Gillis: Yeah you got a driver and a body guard and do Karate, it’s fun. I’m walking around thinking “I’m going to get fucked up”
Rogan: Don’t walk around, gotta secure the perimeter.
This is real life today and both of these guys are either millionaires or incredibly popular comedians with significant amounts of cash to throw around.
If the distinction between these two people is that broad, you’re well past conspiracy territory.
I can tell you for a fact in the trenches of Chicago and Miami where I have a lot of transiently homeless friends, they are living way worse than the Flintstones because they don’t even have a community to rely on.
Yes, they will unload from the specialized robot(dishwasher). They can be the glue in certain situations that are not common enough to design a better solution for. But rapid prototyping, AI and other tech will also make it faster and easier than ever to produce custom solutions for niche applications. The "human robots will take over" bros are thinking one step ahead but not two.
There's still plenty of assembly work being done by humans in automotive factories. Maybe it's not humanoid robots, but quadruped robots or something with more human-like agility. [Microfactories](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNqmvIuzbR4) are an interesting shift in automotive manufacturing that could take advantage of these more dexterous and mobile robot form factors.
Generally, you want specialized robots only for tasks that can keep the robots busy most of the time. If you have a variety of low-volume tasks, you can't fill your factory with specialized robots for all of them. You need more general-purpose workers that can do all those different things. Right now those workers are humans. That's where humanoid robots could fill a role.
Even if specialized robots were at parity with specialized people (they are not in dimensions like dexterity), the big thing missing is the flexibility. You can on the fly change the production process, humans will be able to accommodate the changes (not at perfect speed, but still). For specialized robots you need stop and reprogram them.
I don't know why people think that legs automatically make everything more flexible. It boggles the mind.
Look at real flexible manufacturing systems to see how much of a bullshit idea that is: https://youtu.be/gUvE2eFH6CY
Everything is transported via the central stacker crane that is directly connected to every machine. You don't need legs. This just leaves the arms and here is the thing, you can just have two robot arms in the same robot cell and call it a day. The humanoid form factor adds nothing.
Also what makes you think you don't have to program the humanoid robots? Again, everyone seems to think that if you build a human shaped robot, human level intelligence will automatically come as a result of the shape of the robot. The moment you remove the head, the intelligence vanishes.
Unironic comparisons to Humane AI shows quite how uncalibrated you are. Not to mention you'd also likely be wrong about that on a 100 year time scale. Undoubtedly you'd have the same opinions for the Internet. Try to reason better, you can do it.
