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> But the capabilities of LLMs is clearly exponential and perhaps super exponential

By what metric?





- Scaling laws (Chinchilla type)

- METR task horizon

It's a mix, performance gains are bursty but we have been getting a lot of bursts (RLVR, test-time compute, agentic breakthroughs)


Chat GPT told him it was true

BS metric... /s



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