I think it's pretty clear that Anthrophic was the main AI lab pushing code automation right from the start. Their blog posts, everything just targeted code generation. Even their headings for new models in articules would be "code". My view if they weren't around, even if it would of happened eventually, code would of been solved with cadence to other use cases (i.e. gradually as per general demand).
AI Engineers aren't actually SWE's per se; they use code but they see it as tedious non-main work IMO. They are happy to automate their compliment and raise in status vs SWE's who typically before all of this had more employment opportunities and more practical ways to show value.
> disrupting others careers is why you have a career in the first place.
Not every software project has or did this. In fact I would argue many new businesses exist that didn't exist before software and computing and people are doing things they didn't beforehand. Especially around discovery of information - solving the "I don't know what I don't know" problem also expanded markets and demand to people who now know.
Whereas the current AI wave seems to be more about efficiency/industrialization/democratizing of existing use cases rather than novel things to date. I would be more excited if I saw more "product orientated" AI use cases other than destroying jobs. While I'm hoping that the "vibing" of software will mean that SWE's are needed to productionise it I'm not confident that AI won't be able to do that soon too nor any other knowledge profession.
I wouldn't be surprised with AI if there's mass unemployment but we still don't cure cancer for example in 20 years.
> Not every software project has or did this. In fact I would argue many new businesses exist that didn't exist before software and computing and people are doing things they didn't beforehand.
That's exactly what I am hoping to see happen with AI.
All I can say to that is "I hope so too"; but logic is telling me otherwise at this point. Because the alternative, as evidenced by this thread, isn't all that good. The fear/dread in people since the holidays has been sad to see - its overwhelmed everything else in tech now.
They commoditized their complement to their hardware/infra, that being software. Good for them and the value of tech will shift to what is still scarce relatively.
Because of point 3 most SWE's are also hesistant to pay for software. The positive feedback loop of "I did well out of this so i will support others as well" is over.
When you are thinking your days are numbered any cost to develop software (even token budget) is measured. As coding becomes commoditized the ROI in code will drop of that code (capitalism rewards scarcity; not value delivered) and you suddenly become cost conscious. We are moving from a monopoly-moat like market to a competitive cost based market in SWE as AI improves.
I think AI has come as the industry was somewhat maturing and most frameworks/software had previous incarnations that mostly did the same thing or could be done adhoc anyway. The need for libraries as the models get better probably declines as well.
Not all open source but a lot of it is fundamentally for humans to consume. If AI can, at its extreme (still remains to be seen), just magic up the software then the value of libraries and a lot of open source software will decline. In some ways its a fundamentally different paradigm of computing, and we don't yet understand what that looks like.
As AI gets better OSS contributes to it; but in its source code feeding the training data not as a direct framework dependency. If the LLM's continue to get better I can see the whole concept of frameworks being less and less necessary.
My theory is that this (juniors unable to get in) is generally how industries/jobs die and phase out in a healthy manner that causes the least pain to its workers. I've seen this happen to a number of other industries with people I know and when it phases out this way its generally less disruptive to people.
The seniors who have less leeway to change course (its harder as you get older in general, large sunk costs, etc) maintain their positions and the disruption occurs at the usual "retirement rate" meaning the industry shrinks a bit each year. They don't get much with pay rises, etc but normally they have some buffer from earlier times so are willing to wear being in a dying field. Staff aren't replaced but on the whole they still have marginal long term value (e.g. domain knowledge on the job that keeps them somewhat respected there or "that guy was around when they had to do that; show respect" kind of thing).
The juniors move to other industries where the price signal shows value and strong demand remains (e.g. locally for me that's trades but YMMV). They don't have the sunk cost and have time on their side to pivot.
If done right the disruption to people's lives can be small and most of the gains of the tech can still come out. My fear is the AI wave will happen fast but only in certain domains (the worst case for SWE's) meaning the adjustment will be hard hitting without appropriate support mechanisms (i.e. most of society doesn't feel it so they don't care). On average individual people aren't that adaptable, but over generations society is.
I wouldn't be surprised if it is only software and creative jobs that die. Whilst I still find it expensive to buy a house, get food, and the grunt work will still need labor.
What that means for society where there are extremely rich people who owns resources and capital, and everyone else is only valued for their dexterity and physical labor (vs skills) I can only guess.
I do think the AI labs have potentially unleashed a society changing technology that ironically penalizes meritocracy and/or intelligence by making it less scarce. The jobs left will be the ones people avoided for a reason (health, risk, etc)
TL;DR: There's many more ways to lose money or barely break even than gain from AI investing.
Because unlike previously:
- You can't invest in these things directly (mostly private) so gains are at best diluted for retail investors.
- They can take your job AND still be unprofitable (i.e. on VC money/subsidized).
- Value accures to capital/companies using it potentially, not the AI labs themselves in a competitive market. In which case the gains will be across many industries and be diluted (i.e. not life changing if you invest enough to offset income loss)
Combined with the fact that many are reliant on their income to pay the bills and don't have enough capital to invest in these things and yes:
- They are exposed to the loss of income of their labor.
- They don't have the capital and/or risk tolerance to invest accordingly.
- The way to invest in these isn't obvious and is subject to unsystematic risk (i.e. can you pick the winners?).
AI Engineers aren't actually SWE's per se; they use code but they see it as tedious non-main work IMO. They are happy to automate their compliment and raise in status vs SWE's who typically before all of this had more employment opportunities and more practical ways to show value.
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