They're building all the software on a single server, and at best their fallback is a 12 year old server they might be able to put back in production. I'm not making any unreasonable assumptions, and they're not being forthcoming with any reassuring details.
Most people actually working on Matrix have been aware of state resets for quite a while. Hydra is just the name of the project which addresses them. There are 3 phases, of which the 1st covers the most serious ones; the 2nd and 3rd phases should drop next year.
As an analogy, it's not dissimilar to how Git has added various different merge resolution approaches over the years in order to come up with more predictable and more "do what i mean" algorithms (resolve, recursive, ORT, octopus, etc). It's slightly different in that a bad merge in Matrix feels very unexpected and problematic, whereas manually unpicking collisions in a VCS is just part of the territory.
XMPP just works and has matured substantially in the last 5years or so. You may or may not like it, but that's all I've been using/needing for a decade, and because of that, I ended up onboarding a bunch of tech-illiterate friends and family members along the way. It just works for them, too.
I "need"/want more, Cross Signing, completely autonomous servers, not contacting 3rd party servers as a client, easy access to e2ee msgs including fresh sessions, non-centralized rooms, e2ee video conferencing, to name to most important aspects.
assumptions
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