Betting markets can be good predictors but I think what poly market is reflective of is not people who are looking for the optimal bet; but wish casting of crypto bros.

In the most bad faith way possible. They are going to get absolutely gutted on this.

They think they’re above the fray, but there’s a reason Google and Meta are taking DMA way more seriously than GDPR - it’s basically a speedboat loaded with explosives in regulatory terms.

It’s designed to move fast and take out targets with extreme prejudice. It is crafted to explicitly overcome the barriers that prevent GDPR being enforced (eg Ireland).

Apple is fucking around with the EU, and will very shortly find out why the DMA is written the way it is.

Great fingerprinting vector. Expect nothing less from Google.

On the flip side, Vision Pro has no apps and it may not be the biggest reason for its failure, but it’s a contributor that I don’t see changing.

Apple’s main source of innovation is applying mafia tactics to software distribution.

> Apple’s main source of innovation is applying mafia tactics to software distribution.

Main source of innovation? What about the Mac, iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple watch, AirPods and M1 MacBook Air, all of which transformed their product categories? Not just because of the hardware, but also because of the hardware-software integration.

Even Apple's failed innovations (Apple Vision, etc.) are interesting products that push the envelope.

I don’t think you’re reading the GPs point very charitably. They’re clearly talking about recent innovations that generate revenue.

Also I think you’re overreacting with some of your examples there. You seem to be conflating “successful” with “innovative”. The two terms aren’t mutually inclusive.

Yes, but Apple has always been ahead on technology compared to everyone else, so that doesn’t count anymore. Or something.

As a software developer who made good money reaching hundreds of thousands of people through the app store where the old “put up a website and buy advertising” model might have netted me single-digit thousands of sales, I am always surprised at the white knights telling me I got no value from paying 30% of revenue.

If the app store is “mafia tactics”, I can’t even imagine how demonic things like wholesalers mist be.

The issue with the App Store model is that it's just another platform to market yourself on. In your case, you benefitted from a first-mover (or early-mover) advantage and did well. Over time the App Store becomes more and more saturated with apps and so the value to developers goes down. This is no different from the web! It's merely offset by a few decades.

If you had put up your website back in the early 90's and were judicious about advertising back then, you might've been a Fortune 500 company (depending on your business niche, of course)!

> I am always surprised at the white knights telling me I got no value from paying 30% of revenue.

Wether or not the 30% is proportional to the value you get by being on the App Store depends on your situation. That is why choice is a great thing.

Big corporations get less benefits than small ones.

This is missing from the conversation, is on average, smaller corporations can better keep via the App Store model vs the open software market, because it allows for focused marketing on a fair playing field

Maybe, maybe not - but are they on more solid footing than Intel? Undoubtedly.

Just focus on accessibility and standards.

Hmm. I never would have added Schema.org support unless there was an SEO reason.

Yeah. If you solve accessibility you generally solve SEO as a byproduct. Mainly because accessible sites are easy for machines to parse.

Very small team, only still exists because they are a rounding error to the CFO on the balance sheet, but otherwise they could go at any time.

Oddly their biggest strength is being irrelevant to the decision makers, if the bean counters noticed the few million they are losing on running Scholar there will be ads + Gemini all over it.

on other hand i would love a Gemini finetuned on all papers or ability to refer to papers in my prompt when researching an idea.

right now, I download pdf and upload it to chatgpt to bounce ideas.

Are you familiar with NotebookLLM?

why

In my experience as a published academic author all the LLM will make up all kinds of plausible papers I “wrote” that don’t exist, academic positions I’ve never held, and the like.

Even if you give it a paper directly I’d not believe it to be reliable. Maybe it could help search for papers, but that’s it.

The beatings will continue until moral improves.

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how an LLM trained in really high quality code would perform.

I’m far from impressed with the output of GPT/Claude, all they’ve done is weight against stack overflow - which is still low quality code relative to Google.

What is probability Google makes this a real product, or is it too likely to autocomplete trade secrets?

It’s a major security/privacy issue, you don’t want to tell world+dog all registered users, especially since that’s typically an email address.

Huge, huge, massive “no no”.

Likewise you still have to do sever side validation as any client side code can be modified, or you can just send payloads directly to the server. IMHO client side form validation is dangerous as it gives a false sense of security.